Thursday, January 22, 2009

The Census Circus Will Be Coming To Town

Written By D.

The 2010 U.S. Census will be upon us before we know it. What that means to politicians is; federal money and political power.

If you understand what is at stake you will see how important it is to pay attention to the Census. Here is a good explanation, long, but a good read; http://supct.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/98-404.ZS.html

The Census will be used for redistricting (redrawing) political lines of representation. Municipal Council Districts, County Board Reps, State Legislative and Congressional District Representation map lines will change.

In states that have lost population some elected officials at the Congressional level will lose their seats and in states that have gained population seats will be gained. Municipal, State and County Legislators will have their lines shifted based on equalizing representation through population. But make no mistake; these lines will be very creative interpretations of fairness for political purposes.

Each of the political parties wants the same thing; to make sure the lines are drawn in their favor. Dems and the GOP will hire people to draw them new maps based on gaining the redistricting advantage. These maps will be held close to the vest and played like a game of high stakes poker.

State legislators will become very important because they decide on how the Congressional maps will be drawn. Whatever party is in charge at the state level will pretty much get the district lines they want and if there is a loss of a Congressional seat, chances are great that it will be the party in the minority that loses it. Deals will be struck for political survival. If the new lines are too bizarre they will be challenged in court.

Since the last Census, people who were not happy with their state, mostly blue states, have been voting with their feet. It will be interesting to see the number of Congressional representatives they lose in redistricting. New York and California will definitely lose Congressional seats.
This will require that the Democrats put on a Census Circus in order to inflate the numbers of what they call “undercounted minorities.”

Court battles will probably renew a fight over “Imputation.”

The statistical question is; If you do not know how many people there are in the first place, how do you know that you under, or for that matter, over-counted them? It is just a statistical guess. While sampling cannot be used in the Census, imputation can be used. But I can see where there would be plenty of opportunity for Dems to abuse imputation in the count.

“It’s not fair to minorities.” will be the Dems mantra, barkering it under the "big tent" of the Census Circus. The msm will overdose on it. But it is really just about power and money, fairness has nothing to do with it. After all, it is not the population count per se that determines the fairness of representation within district lines; fairness is determined by the politicians who draw those lines.

Here is the real danger ahead; I believe the ultimate goal of the Dems will be to use imputation to their advantage. If this is allowed to happen it could be a political redistricting disaster.

I also believe the Dems will do all in their power to control the count. Imagine this; ACORN Census takers being paid to count “undercounted minorities.” Don’t think it cannot happen. Remember that much political power and federal funding to the states is at stake and I don’t have to tell you that Democrats are known to cheat.

I could name a lot of things that aren’t fair but a true count of the census is not one of them. I urge people who want a fair count to pay close attention to information reported about the Census and you may want to volunteer to become a Census taker, especially if you live in a city. If possible, also try to get involved in the redistricting process.

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